First of all, over supply is rubber city long-term negative. Because of long production cycle, the production decision-making basis agricultural period is often glue early market price, and the period of production determines the period of NR price. International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), as the 2006 - 2008 planted rubber trees began tapping, in 2014 the global natural rubber output is expected to increase the basic output of 11700000 tons in 2013, is expected to rise 4.5%. On the other hand, decrease in the International Monetary Fund expected global economic growth this year, IRSG on the rubber demand growth of 3% to 11300000 tons is expected or be adjusted, because Europe and the tire replacement and sales are not expected at the beginning of many, affect consumer expectations. In addition, since a few years ago the international rubber prices higher, resulting in 2010 - 2012 rubber producing areas planted rubber trees, rubber farmers without large-scale cut rubber trees, rubber yield in future several years will continue to grow.
Secondly, the domestic rubber stock always "pressure of big mountain". As of October 30th the total inventory of rubber bonded area in Qingdao is mid month dropped by 5800 tons to 253800 tons, the total inventory while continue to decline, but compared with the historical highest inventory of less than 1/3, and, the current inventory reduction of speed has slowed down. It is understood, the bonded area reduced rubber, a considerable part of the exchange to delivery warehouses, as of November 1st, the period on the settlement bank of natural rubber stock week again increased 6205 year-on-year to 147662 tons, at a historic high, and exchange delivery library there continued to increase.
In addition, national development and Reform Commission recently interviewed the domestic large tyre manufacturers and logistics company, negotiate import Thailand rubber, it is understood, at present the government of Thailand tobacco sheet rubber inventory about 200000 tons, if late a lot Thailand glue into the domestic market, domestic stock will rise to record highs. On the news surface, country store was finally identified tobacco sheet rubber Shouchu news about 54000 tons, but the Shouchu sure did not form a strong support for the market, the reason is that such a small batch purchasing and storage for the upstream overall high inventory is undoubtedly an utterly inadequate measure, and the downstream tire enterprise inventory is still not low.
Finally, the synthetic rubber price weakness also to bring no small pressure to hujiao. According to the present tire production technology, synthetic rubber and natural rubber ratio close to 1:1, there are very strong complementary relationship. Since this year, butadiene prices drop, Sinopec and PetroChina and other mainstream manufacturers repeatedly slashed by pressure the market, at the same time, in the styrene butadiene rubber and butadiene rubber prices fell at the same time, the demand of light. At present, the upstream crude oil in consumption off-season, WTI crude oil prices the next step will be to test the support of 90 yuan / barrel nearby, this to weight for the synthesis of adhesive tape.